There's No Help Provided by Forecasting
(Post written by Tim Meisenheimer)
Look at how contradicting these two economic forecasts arefrom the SAME forecaster at one of the Big Banks.
Less than 3 months apart!
𝗔𝘂𝗴 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬: "Stocks are moving into the 'euphoria' stage of the cycle, and there are growing signs of 'exhaustion' in the market"
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-stocks-are-in-euphoria-but-rally-slowing-2020-8-1029537035
𝗡𝗼𝘃 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬: "All of our US macro-equity-bond indicators are positive or beginning to turn...We expect the market to reach 3,750 by end of 2021”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-2021-stock-market-forecasts-morning-brief-111544644.html
“The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
-- John Kenneth Galbraith, Economist and Author
We're not trying to put down anyone here. And we sure hope the Nov 2021 "forecast" is in the right direction.
Our hope is that no long term investor who's preparing for their retirement, especially if it's soon, is listening to these.
People forecast because they're being asked to, not because there's any predictive value to their forecast.
